Veridus Advisory: Arizona General Election 2026 Update #3
The full scope of Arizona Democrats’ victory this week is coming into view as counties process and tabulate remaining ballots. Today, Republicans Jay Feely, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, and Elijah Norton were among candidates to issue concession statements.
One bright spot for Republicans: in CD-2, it appears likely that Congressman Eli Crane will hang on to win in his close race with Democrat Jonathan Nez. Media outlets have not yet called the race, however.
Below is the latest projection for legislative control, beginning in January.
These are the legislative races we’re watching most closely, though the likelihood that any of the outcomes will flip is becoming narrower with each passing hour. (numbers as of 8:40 p.m. Thursday)
LD-14 Senate: Stephanie Walsh (D): 50.9%; Mylie Biggs (R): 48.9%
LD-16 Senate: Elaine Aldrete (D): 51.2%; Sen. T.J. Shope (R): 48.7%
LD-25: Rep. Michael Carbone (R): 35.2%; Rep. Nick Kupper (R): 32.9%; Tiffany Byrne (D) 31.5%.
LD-29 Senate: Sen. Janae Shamp (R) 51.3%; Eric Stafford (D) 48.5%
LD-29 House: Christine Scianna (D) 33.7%; Rep. Steve Montenegro (R) 33.3%; Rep. James Taylor (R) 32.3%
The remaining ballot measure whose fate remains in question is Prop 141, a ban on vehicle miles traveled fees. It is currently at 51% Yes, 49% No.
We will keep you updated with the latest.
Thank you,
Veridus team
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