Veridus Advisory: Arizona General Election 2026 Update

Blue wave? It’s looking that way based on initial ballot results across Arizona. 

Multiple media outlets have already called the race for Governor, saying Democrat Katie Hobbs will be returned for a second term. Democrats are also handily leading in the remaining statewide races: Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Corporation Commission … even Mine Inspector.

Caveat: A large number of ballots are left to count, including hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots dropped off at polling places Tuesday. 

That said, the Arizona electorate’s leftward lurch is impossible to ignore. Consider the state’s most closely-watched congressional races. Democrats look poised to pick up at least two seats, with Democrat JoAnna Mendoza leading GOP Congressman Juan Ciscomani in CD-6, and Democratic former legislator Amish Shah ahead of Republican Jay Feely in CD-1. Even deep crimson CD-2, CD-5 and CD-8 appear in play at this hour.

As for the Arizona Legislature, those races will take longer to shake out. But, the prospect of a Democratic trifecta is very much on the table and potentially even a likelihood at this point.

Election Day itself was uneventful, though voters in some rural communities were impacted by flooding and other damage associated with last weekend’s storms. State, and local officials in some areas even partnered to clear roads for voters so they could make their voices heard. No significant issues were reported in Maricopa County, home to over 2.5 million voters.

Arizona’s 15 counties will need the remainder of this week and potentially longer to continue processing and counting the remaining ballots, including a 5-day “cure” period for mail-in ballots that have signature issues. Maricopa County expects to have 95% of its ballots counted by the end of Friday.

Check here for the latest statewide results. Below are some of the Arizona races we’re watching, with results as of approximately 10:15 p.m. (MST) Tuesday.

Federal Races

CD-1: 

Democrat Amish Shah is leading Jay Feely (R) by double digits in this swing, Northeast Valley district.

CD-2: 

GOP Congressman Eli Crane and former Navajo Nation leader Jonathan Nez are locked in a close race that remains too close to call.

CD-6: 

Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is on pace to easily defeat GOP Congressman Juan Ciscomani in this southern Arizona district.

Federal Races

Governor:

Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is cruising to victory over GOP challenger Andy Biggs.

Secretary of State:

Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has a double-digit lead over GOP legislator Alex Kolodin.

Attorney General:

Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes is comfortably ahead of GOP Senate President Warren Petersen. 

State Treasuer:

Democrat Nick Mansour holds a double-digit lead over Republican Elijah Norton. 

Superintendent of Public Instruction:

Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz maintains a lead over Republican Kimberly Yee, the current State Treasurer.

Corporation Commission:

Democrats Jonathon Hill and Clara Pratte are on-pace to claim both Commission seats, including defeating Republican incumbent Kevin Thompson.