Veridus Advisory: Arizona General Election 2026 Update #2

As vote-counting continued Wednesday, it is clear Arizona Democrats are poised to claim control of the Governor’s Office, House and Senate for the first time in 60 years.

That’s not all - media have also called the races for Secretary of State and Attorney General in favor of Democratic incumbents, and the party is comfortably ahead in contests for State Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instructor, Mine Inspector and two Corporation Commission seats. 

Election workers continue to process hundreds of thousands of ballots remaining statewide - the bulk of which are mail-in ballots dropped at polling places Monday and Tuesday. Approximately 250,000 of these ballots are in Maricopa County, which has indicated it will have counted over 95% of everything remaining by the end of Friday. Check here for the latest statewide results.

In the meantime, Democratic discussions are well underway as they prepare to claim majority control of the Arizona House and Senate. Currently, Republicans control the House 33-27 and the Senate 17-13. Following Tuesday’s election, Democratic candidates are on track to win 37 House seats and 20 Senate seats. Remaining uncounted ballots may be determinative in a handful of too-close-to-call contests.

The following are key legislative races to watch (numbers as of 5:15 p.m. Wednesday):

• LD-2: GOP Sen. Shawnna Bolick trails Democrat Amelia Gallitano by roughly 8,000 votes.

• LD-4: Former state legislator Aaron Lieberman leads GOP Sen. Carine Werner by a little over 6,000 votes. On the House side, former Scottsdale City Councilmember Tammy Caputi and Democrat Karen Gresham claim the top spots.

• LD-13: Democrat Kristie O’Brien leads GOP Rep. Julie Willoughby in this Senate race by a little less than 8,000 votes. Two House seats are up for grabs in this district, with Democrats Rockee Armstrong and Jacob Weinberg leading Kevin Hartke and Janet Weninger. 

• LD-14: Looking like more Democratic pickups, as Stephanie Walsh leads Republican Mylie Biggs in the Senate race by about 2,400 votes, and Mary Rose is ahead of Republicans Tyler Farnsworth and Rep. Laurin Hendrix.

• LD-16: One of the night’s stunners - Democrat Elaine Aldrete leads GOP Sen. T.J. Shope by about 1,400 votes. For the two House seats, Democrat Julia Romero Gusse is well ahead and GOP Rep. Teresa Martinez is in second place. 

• LD-17: Democrat Edgar Soto leads in the Senate race by nearly 10,000 votes. On the House side, it’s another Democratic pickup as Rep. Kevin Volk and Holly Lyon handily lead Republicans John Winchester and Rep. Rachel Keshel.

• LD-23: Democratic Sen. Brian Fernandez is comfortably ahead of GOP challenger Michelle Altherr. On the House side, Democrats Emilia Cortez and Rep. Mariana Sandoval are cruising as GOP Rep. Michele Peña faces defeat.

• LD-27: GOP Sen. Kevin Payne is likely to get knocked off by Democrat Kyle Clayton. Meanwhile, Democrat Deborah Howard looks to pick up one of the two House seats. Rep. Lisa Fink narrowly leads fellow Republican Tony Rivero for the second House seat.

• LD-29: GOP Sen. Janae Shamp looks to hang onto her seat and is leading Democrat Eric Stafford. Another surprise on the House side, with Democrat Christine Scianna on track to claim a seat along with GOP House Speaker Steve Montenegro. GOP Rep. James Taylor is likely to be the odd man out.

At the federal level, the lone remaining undecided race at this hour is CD-2. Democrat and former Navajo Nation leader Jonathan Nez leads GOP Congressman Eli Crane by less than a percentage point and, with how many ballots are outstanding, it will take time before a winner will be decided. The race may even be a candidate for recount.

It wasn’t only candidates on the ballot Tuesday. Voters determined the outcome of numerous statewide and local propositions. Below is a summary:

• Prop 141 (bans vehicle miles traveled fees): Too close to call

• Prop 142 (anti-DEI measure): Trailing by 20 points

• Prop 144 (election reform package): Trailing by 7 points

• Prop 316 (caps local grocery taxation): Passing handily

• Prop 317 (classifies cartels as terrorist groups): Passing by 14 points

• Prop 318 (student athletics according to gender at birth): Passing handily

• Prop 319 (bans photo enforcement on roadways): Passing by 22 points

• Prop 320 (school budgeting): Trailing by about 2.5 points

• Prop 413 (Maricopa jail tax): Passing by 30 points