IN FOCUS - July 10, 2026

Early voting is well underway across Arizona, as political observers and campaigns watch the returns closely for signs of voter sentiment and enthusiasm.

As of today, roughly 470,000 early ballots had already been cast. That means more than 1 in 10 of the state’s 4.3 million registered voters have already voted. About 35% of Arizona voters turned out for the past two midterm Primary Elections, in 2022 and 2018.

Thus far, Democratic returns are slightly ahead of Republican statewide - leading by about 6,000 ballots. Among the roughly 45,000 independents who’ve voted, a little over 19,000 have chosen a Democratic ballot, nearly 16,000 have chosen a GOP ballot and the remainder have gone with a third party. NOTE: independent and unaffiliated voters must choose a party ballot in order to vote in the Arizona Primary.

OK, what does any of this mean? Maybe nothing. But, it is at least noteworthy that Democratic turnout is actually leading as of today in a state in which Republicans outnumber them by 320,000 registered voters.

Caveats abound. A big one: Democrats have famously been much more likely than Republicans to vote early and via mail since 2020. That may suggest a late rush of GOP returns among voters who drop off their ballots or vote on Election Day.

Countering this theory is the fact Arizona Democrats have almost no competitive Primary contests at the top of the ticket - incumbents running for Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General are unchallenged. That would be expected to tamp down turnout - whereas the opposite would be expected among GOP voters, who have competitive races for each of these executive offices.

We won’t have to read tea leaves much longer. The Primary is July 21, and election officials urge voters to mail their ballots by Tuesday, July 14.