IN FOCUS - May 24, 2024

Candidate signs are up. Campaign ads are on the air. Poll results are out.

Campaign season in Arizona is about to hit the final stretch.

Believe it or not, Primary Election ballots will begin hitting mailboxes in about a month; General Election voting starts in roughly 16 weeks.

The FiveThirtyEight.com average of polls shows Donald Trump with a 4.7% edge on President Biden in Arizona, a small but persistent lead that is outside the margin of error. This week, local pollster Mike Noble released survey results that indicate Trump is ahead by 3 points in his bid for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes.Trump’s odds have become better as President Biden’s unfavorables have grown.

However, it’s not all sunshine for the GOP. 

Republican U.S. Senate contender Kari Lake appears to be enjoying no coattails effect from Trump. Though Lake remains the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nomination, a series of recent polls show her losing in November against Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego. Separate survey results released this week by CBS News-YouGov and local pollster Mike Noble showed Rep. Gallego ahead by 13 points and 10 points, respectively.

Look for the presidential and Senate races in Arizona to tighten in the weeks ahead as nominating contests formally conclude and voters begin to “come home” to their political parties. Whatever Lake’s challenges unifying the Republican Party, it is virtually inconceivable that she could lose Arizona by double digits - especially if Trump performs well. Likewise, President Biden will probably narrow Trump’s advantage … particularly if illegal border crossings continue to plunge and immigration fades from the headlines.

None of this is surprising for a state that has become one of the nation’s hardest-fought electoral battlegrounds. Buckle up.