Veridus Advisory: Arizona General Election Update (3:30 PM MST, Monday, Nov. 12)

Dear Clients:

Legislators met in Phoenix today to elect new caucus leadership slates. They are as follows:

House Republicans:

• House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R-Goodyear)

• House Majority Leader Michael Carbone (R-Buckeye)

• House Majority Whip Julie Willoughby (R-Chandler)

House Democrats:

• Minority Leader Oscar De los Santos (D-Laveen)

• Minority Assistant Leader Nancy Gutierrez (D-Tucson)

• Minority Co-Whip Quantá Crews (D-Phoenix)

• Minority Co-Whip Stacey Travers (D-Phoenix)

Senate Republicans:

• President Warren Petersen (R-Gilbert)

• Majority Leader Janae Shamp (R-Surprise)

• Majority Whip Frank Carroll (R-Sun City West)

Senate Democrats:

• Minority Leader Priya Sundareshan (D-Tucson) 

• Assistant Minority Leader Flavio Bravo (D-Phoenix)

• Minority Whip Rosanna Gabaldón (D-Green Valley) 

Meanwhile, Arizona’s 15 counties continue to process and tabulate remaining ballots. Legislative Republicans expanded their majorities in both House and Senate, and look to enter 2025 with a 33-27 advantage in the House and 17-13 edge in the Senate. High-profile races for U.S. Senate (Ruben Gallego) and the 6th Congressional District (Rep. Juan Ciscomani) were called over the weekend, and a relative handful of too-close-to-call contests remain.

Here’s where the races stand (all results are as of 3:30 p.m. MST Monday):

Federal Races

U.S. Senate:

Democrat Ruben Gallego’s lead over Republican Kari Lake grew over the weekend and is up to over 72,000 votes. The Senator-elect is Washington attending new member orientation. 

CD-6: 

Rep. Ciscomani endured a grueling rematch over former state legislator Kirsten Engel to win reelection. Remaining ballots shouldn’t upset his 4,900 vote edge. 

Legislative Races

Arizona Senate:

LD-4

Republican Carine Werner grew her lead over Sen. Christine Marsh (D) to over 4,700 votes in one of the election’s biggest upsets.

LD-9 

Democratic Sen. Eva Burch dispatched Robert Scantlebury by 2,600 votes in one of the few bright spots for Democrats.

LD-17

Former GOP lawmaker Vince Leach has taken the lead back from Democrat John McLean to ensure Republicans grow their Senate Majority.

Arizona House of Representatives (top two):

LD-2

Democrat Stephanie Simacek regained the lead to become the top vote getter, though about 850 votes separate her from 3rd place Republican Ari Daniel Bradshaw. GOP Rep. Justin Wilmeth remains in the second spot.

LD-4

In another shocker, GOP Rep. Matt Gress and Republican Pamela Carter finished well ahead of their Democrat rivals, turning this purple district red.

LD-9

Democratic Rep. Seth Blattman has clawed back into 2nd place, behind seat mate Lorena Austin. He leads 3rd place Republican Kylie Barber by just over 800 votes.

LD-17

Democrat Kevin Volk is a rare legislative bright spot for his party as he is on-track to flip the seat in this competitive district. Claiming the 2nd seat is GOP Rep. Rachel Jones.