IN FOCUS - Nov. 7, 2025

Do Democrats have their mojo back?

After 12 months of soul-searching, reflection and countless political obits, Democrats romped Tuesday with big victories in Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, California and elsewhere. The wins raise further questions about the reliability of President Trump’s MAGA coalition during elections when his name isn’t on the ballot, and raise red flags for the GOP and its narrow House and Senate majorities as we approach the 2026 midterms. During the 2018 midterms, Democrats picked up 40 House seats and retook control of the chamber.

It’s not that Tuesday’s Democratic victories in left-leaning New Jersey and Virginia were unexpected. Rather, it was the margin of those victories - with Democrats retaking the Virginia Governor’s Office in a 15-point win, and winning New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest by 13 points. Both contests were widely expected to be within a handful of points, if not closer.

Perhaps more concerning to the GOP, this week’s results suggest President Trump’s historic inroads among voters of color in 2024 may have been temporary. According to an AP Voter Poll, New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill (D) was supported by 9 out of 10 Black voters, 8 out of 10 Asian voters and approximately two-thirds of Hispanic voters. The same coalition powered Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger (D) to victory in Virginia. 

Whether Tuesday’s results were a one-off or indicative of a trend leading into the 2026 midterms is yet to be determined. But there’s plenty of reason for Republican angst; going back to 1934, the party controlling the White House has lost - on average - 28 House seats during the midterm election.

The Republican Party’s current House majority: one seat.