IN FOCUS - May 29, 2026

The race for Arizona Governor began in earnest this week as the Hobbs campaign launched a slate of broadcast TV ads it characterized as “the earliest ever for an Arizona gubernatorial race.” The 30-second biographical spots are airing in English and Spanish and highlight Governor Katie Hobbs’ working-class background, as well as her focus on affordability issues.

Despite early polling that suggests the Democratic incumbent is leading GOP challengers Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, the Hobbs campaign justified the early advertising blitz by noting the state remains a “+9 Republican electorate.” 

The latest Noble Predictive Insights survey showed Congressman Andy Biggs with a 30-point advantage in the race for the GOP nomination. But, Governor Hobbs leads Rep. Biggs by 4 points in a hypothetical General Election matchup featuring the pair along with 3rd party candidate Hugh Lytle. Sixteen percent of respondents were undecided.

Republican candidates nationwide are feeling the drag from President Trump’s approval, currently -17 in Arizona. Regardless, Arizona continues to lean right - thanks to a roughly 300,000-registered-voter edge for Republicans. Like any Democrat running statewide, Governor Hobbs will need to outperform among independents and moderates. 

Enter, the advertising campaign.

The Hobbs campaign is sitting on a $7.1 million war chest, relative to Team Biggs’ $1.1 million. Both are likely to receive substantial aid from the national parties, and independent groups are sure to weigh-in, also.

For political campaigns, there is advantage to reserving air time now, when rates are cheaper. The question is how long the Hobbs campaign will be able to continue the broadcast push … and whether her GOP challengers will allow her air time to go unanswered.