IN FOCUS - July 12, 2024

Will he or won’t he? 

Public and private calls for President Biden to exit the race accelerated this week in the aftermath of his disastrous debate performance, and two members of the Arizona delegation have joined the chorus: Democratic Reps. Greg Stanton and Raul Grijalva.  Meanwhile, the President remains resolute that he’s staying in the race, a point he reiterated Thursday evening during a press conference.

Polling is a muddle. The Biden camp points to national surveys that continue to show a Biden vs. Trump matchup within the margin of error. Battleground polls have been more bleak for the incumbent, as the President has lost ground across a host of swing states. In calling for Biden to withdraw from the race, U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) even warned that Trump may be on-track to win in “a landslide” … “and take with him the Senate and the House.”

Support for Biden varies among Arizona Democratic leaders. Gov. Katie Hobbs, U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego and others have weighed-in with differing levels of support for their party’s standard bearer, while surveys show Trump breaking away in the state. 

The true Biden barometer for Arizona Democrats is candidates facing tough contests this November, beginning with Rep. Ruben Gallego and his race for Senate. Thus far, he is taking a wait-and-see approach, while urging President Biden to get more active on the campaign trail. In contrast, former legislator Kirsten Engel - a Democrat running for Congress in the Tucson-focused swing district - has been mum … despite increasing pressure from the Ciscomani campaign.

Next week, attention shifts to the Republican National Convention where Trump will name his running mate and formally accept the GOP’s nomination for a third consecutive time. That would ordinarily be a rough stretch for the Democrats. 

But given the bruising past couple weeks, this period out of the limelight for Team Biden may be something else: a relief.