IN FOCUS - Dec. 12, 2025

If at first you don’t succeed …

National Democrats are taking that axiom to heart, as this week they once again named the Arizona Legislature a prime flip target in 2026. It was only two years ago that the party boasted and spent big on a failed 2024 effort to take control of the Arizona House and Senate. 

That … didn’t happen, and - in fact - the GOP added to its margins in both chambers.

Democrats believe this time will be different, though. Fresh off a string of off-year election wins that have seen progressives outperform expectations, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) is doubling down on an ambitious, coast-to-coast plan that targets more than 650 statehouse seats. Arizona is cited as a battleground target, along with Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

With President Trump’s popularity flagging and voter frustration with the economy and consumer costs growing, the DLCC says “the favorable political environment taking shape for Democrats is on a scale that only comes along once in a generation.” Another figure causing Republican heartburn: -4. That would be President Trump’s latest net approval rating in Arizona. 

Still, flipping control of the Arizona Legislature remains a tall task. The past two decades have seen multiple cycles in which Democrats thought they were primed to garner control, only to fall short. Why? Multiple factors, but arguably the biggest is that voters tend to side with their party in down-ballot races, including legislative contests. 

That gives a decided advantage to the GOP and will loom large in 2026, as Arizona Republicans currently outnumber Democrats by over 300,000 registered voters.