IN FOCUS - Apr. 4, 2025

Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin and Florida felt more like Groundhog Day than April Fools’.

Democrats won a $100 million Wisconsin State Supreme Court race and significantly overperformed (but lost) in two ruby red U.S. House contests in Florida. The results reinforce what has been a trend for the GOP during the MAGA Era: Trump voters turn out in big numbers for Trump … but not necessarily anybody else.

Arizona politicos are familiar with the dynamic. Republicans did well during President Trump’s election in 2016, but Democrats claimed four statewide offices - including a U.S. Senate seat - in 2018. The pattern repeated itself in the 2022 midterm as Arizona Democrats again won four statewide races and set up residence in the Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General offices.

Why? President Trump’s coalition consists of many low-propensity voters. His ability to motivate and turn-out these voters has been the secret to his electoral success, but it has not routinely translated to other Republican candidates during elections in which Trump is not on the ballot. Democrats experienced a similar phenomenon during the Obama era.

Now, conservative politicos are concerned about a similar dynamic taking hold in 2026 and hurting Republican chances during a year in which each statewide office is on the ballot, along with all 90 legislative seats. The GOP has its work cut out for it, especially as midterm elections traditionally favor the party out of power. And that’s before we get into the economic news, but we’ll save that for another day.